RAS Analysis: Oregon (-2) at USC

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Season Record: 16-5 +11.5 UNITS

One play for Friday:

Oregon (-2) at USC - 6:00pm Pacific
The Ducks are 5-2 on the season. Their only two losses coming vs Kansas in Kansas City by 10 and vs Alabama in Las Vegas by 1. They are showing positive improvement in each outing playing their best game of the season in an 18 point win at Portland U last time out. The Pilots had a sold out crowd and were really up for the game but were no match. Portland easily covered their next two outings including an outright win at Boise State as a double digit dog. Portland also has won at Oregon State, at New Mexico, and beat Nevada by 16 on their home court so it was a quality win for the Ducks.

Oregon has one of the deepest backcourts in the country. McDonald's all-American freshman Aaron Brooks (6.6ppg, 3.0apg) is a lighting fast point guard who fits Oregon's style well. He can push the ball up with the best of them. Senior James Davis (11.2ppg, .419 from 3-point range), senior Andre Joseph (12.7ppg, .500 from 3-point range), and sophomore Brandon Lincoln (6.7ppg, .563 from 3-point range) are all dangerous scorers. The frontcourt is led by senior all-American candidate Luke Jackson (21.0ppg, .474 from 3-point range), a potent scorer, rebounder, and playmaker. 6-11 Australian sophomore Ian Crosswhite is an emerging star down low. He is currently second on the team with a 14.6ppg average and shoots 89.5% from the free throw line. Good looking freshman center Mitch Platt (5.3ppg, 5.3rpg) started the first three games but missed the last four with an ankle injury. He is probable to return to the lineup tonight. He brings added depth and toughness down low.

USC has had a number of problems in the early going. Returning starting forward Nick Curtis has played sparingly and has missed the last three games with tendinitus in his left knee. He is hopeful to return to action tonight but will again be limited. Senior guard Roydell Smiley who broke his leg at the end of last season has still not seen action and may redshirt. Power forward Greg Guenther just finished up his football duties and has not played. Freshman point guard Quinton Day did not return to the team following Thanksgiving break. That leaves the team with 8 scholarship players. Senior Desmond Farmer is averaging 18.4ppg. He is not playing bad, but questionable shot selection has him shooting just .385 from the field. Fordham transfer Jeff McMillian (13.8ppg, 9.3rpg) has been the lone bright spot on this team but he does not get the ball nearly enough. He is limited by the lack of a true point guard. The Trojan's four guards (Stewart and Craven twins) are shooting a combined 18 for 93 (.193) from 3-point range and have an equal number of assists and turnovers. I have watched the Trojans play twice in person this year. There is way too much one one one play and defensive intensity has been lacking.

USC opponents are shooting .460 from the field (9th in Pac-10) and .374 from behind the arc (last in Pac-10) and they have not been playing any world beaters. Trojans are 3-2 straight up and 0-4 ATS at the lowly Sports Arena which has to be one of the lesser home court advantages in major conference college basketball. Trojans were pushed to the end by CSUN, needed OT to beat Fullerton, lost to UNLV in OT, and lost by 15 to Cal Poly here. USC has registered assists on just 127 of their 256 made field goals (49.6%) on the season. Oregon has registered assists on 129 of their 190 made field goals (67.8%). I do not have to tell you which club is exhibiting better teamwork. Ducks are also a better rebounding team. Oregon won eight straight Pac-10 openers before setback vs Arizona last season. Look for them to start a new streak tonight.

Oregon 1 UNIT


Good luck,


Edward
 

Rx. Senior
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Thanks Ed, good quality writeup. Duck fan here, who will probably lay off the game betting-wise, but will definitely be tuning in. Hoping to see Platt return to action, but have a feeling he will miss the road trip this weekend.
 
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All indications are that Pratt will play. He has practiced three times.

"He'll definitely be able to go some, we'll see how much," Kent said. "We'll play it by ear and see how his energy is."

Luke Jackson predicted Platt is "going to be ready to go. He's a big part of our team, and the sooner he's back, the better off we'll be."
 

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
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Nice call. How many times did you wish you'd put a 2-unit on it
icon_smile.gif
 

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